Risk Management and Economics of Pandemics


When we entered the lockdown we were the first to talk about the ethics of communications and research, shortly followed by the a discussion about responsible modeling during pandemics. Now as we enter the “monthsary” of the ‘enhanced community quarantine’ (ECQ), it’s time for a third take on this pandemic.

After all the talk about epidemic models, flattening the curve, social distancing, and washing our hands, people still have more questions to be answered. Let’s finally discuss the implications of the ongoing pandemic on the other equally important aspects of our lives: jobs, inflation, the stock market, loans, what banks are doing, and more.

As we approach the scheduled lifting of the ECQ, let’s understand how COVID-19 impacts the economy.  

We had an engaging podcast where we discussed current events and implications on the Philippine economy. The Q&A was also quite rich in insights. Some topics we covered:

  • How does COVID-19 impact various economic sectors?
  • Economic Shocks: What is a “V”, “U”, and “L” shaped recovery?
  • What were the BSP measures and how could they affect the economy?
  • Financial crises vs. Health crises
  • What economic factors go with GDP: Consumption, Investment, Government Spending, and how they are expected to perform post ECQ?
  • How does the BSP create money? The roles of banks and lending.
  • How do banks manage risk and COVID’s implications to the banking sector?
  • What’s the difference between Monetary and Fiscal Policy?
  • Lifting the ECQ: Economy vs. Health – what is more important?
  • How was the performance of the Health sector so far?
  • What about Food Security? Does the current scenario spark civil unrest?
  • What industries are impacted by the crises? How can we implement a targeted ECQ?

This important discussion was led by two data scientist professionals who are working in the finance and economics sector.



Francis Endrinal has been working with data for financial consulting with banks and major financial institutions. He works with regulatory models for credit and enterprise risk with some of the top banks in the Philippines. He promotes the use of the R programming language for ordinary data work and the strengthening of data skills in the workplace. 


Robert Dan teaches econometrics and financial economics in DLSU and did stints in government and non-profits doing policy and analytics. He’s also an economist for a major financial institution who uses R and Python for analysis work.